Decisions can feel really difficult, and we face a lot of uncertainties. But we can't escape making choices- we make them almost every day, whether it is as mundane as which coffee brand to buy, or what to eat, or as serious as a medical professional making a tricky diagnosis from an X-ray for something as serious as a tumour. People may have to make choices between taking a cab or a bus during an important meeting, when they are trying to save money. These choices have one thing in common, which is a feeling of being uncertain (sometime more than the other) and this could become complicated by our own personalities, our life experiences and all the distractions surrounding us.
It might make us wonder what our decision-making process is like for important decisions while being uncertain, and how we can understand ourselves and our choices better.
When we have to choose between the bus and the cab, we may have to factor in our anxiety levels, our priorities (like saving money), the weather, the risk of being late and other related factors, if we want to reach our office on time (the goal we want to achieve). Based on these factors alone, we might make different choices.
This is where Signal Detection Theory comes in - a theory that tried to understand soldiers ability to differentiate between actual signals or from background noise during the wake of World War -II Tanner and Swets in 1954. Over the years this theory has been incorporated into psychology research on decision making in uncertain situations.
This theory talks about a person's ability to identify any SIGNAL (or some sort of stimulus like sound, image, or even a goal) in the presence of NOISE(this could be distraction, our personalities, our life circumstances).
..This can lead to four possible outcomes...
HIT- When we are able to correctly detect a signal when it is present. For example; Our ability to detect a friend calling us in a crowded street from far away despite traffic and noise.
FALSE ALARM- When we think there is a signal when there is none. For example: we think someone has called our name but it is a stranger shouting out a sound that sounds similar to our name.
MISS - This happens when we think there is no signal even though it is present. For example: We misjudged that no one called our name and it was just someone from the crowd; but it indeed turned out to be our friend.
CORRECT REJECTION - This happens when we correctly choose that a signal wasn't present. For example: we correctly decipher that nobody called out our name in the crowded street.
It is quite apparent that we can realize whether our choice led to any of the above-mentioned outcomes only after we already make the decision but we are always aiming for either a hit or a correct rejection. This implies that we are taking a risk of either being happy with an outcome or disappointed about it (or similar binaries of emotion).
How do Understand our decision-making process better?
How well do we know ourselves?
Self-awareness can play a significant role in understanding how we make decisions. Some of us are more cautious than others- weighing our choices through a thorough list of pros and cons. This might mean that we are more inclined towards making a choice that we are certain about. So, if there are more distractions, we may not choose at all. Conversely, someone who takes risks, may simply take opportunities as they come, becoming open to both a higher number of setbacks and successes.
How well do we know what we want?
Knowing what we want is essential in being able to sift through distractions, even if we are not sure if the current situation would take us to that goal. For instance, if we want a well-paying job that is in our field of interest, we may have to first focus on the general expectations we have from our job (has good benefits, there are steady modes of transport, etc.). This way, if we are uncertain about a job offer (we are cautious about the setbacks we may face in the job), we would remember if it sustainably matches most of our criteria.
Knowing the risks involved in making a choice
Every choice has some or the other risk involved - maybe the well-paying job we thought as our dream job- is causing more stress than not, or the doctor who has to diagnose a tumor from an unclear X-ray could risk the wellbeing of their patient if misdiagnosed, or a person is weighing the option to postpone an important medical check-up because they don't want to dip into their savings before their next salary. Often if the risks are too high, it is better to be cautious but it is equally important to remind ourselves that some risks are in our minds (the risk of a stressful job is different than a risk of a misdiagnosis and we have to approach them differently).
What can we do if the risks do happen?
Seeking any form of support for a second opinion before making a decision (if possible) or seeking help to navigate our emotions after making a choice, whenever needed can be really effective for many of us. The weight of doing everything on our own can make some people not want to take important career risks or make choices that may seem drastic but any support or guidance in these situations can help steer us in a direction that is closer to our wellbeing.
Most importantly, being open-minded that despite being prepared we can't guarantee that we will get the exact outcome we want:
But at the end of the day, we need to realize that there is always a possibility that the decision we make is not correct for us ( a MISS or a FALSE ALARM) and we have to make a choice despite these possibilities. Some degree of kindness and empathy for ourselves and others in this situation can do a world of a difference. They say Hindsight is 20:20 and this holds true for critical life decisions that we make in the face of a lot of uncertainties.
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