Decisions can sometimes feel really difficult, but we can't escape making choices- we make them almost every day, whether it is as mundane as which coffee brand to buy, or what to eat, or as serious as a medical professional making a tricky diagnosis from an X-ray for a tumour. People may have to choose between taking a cab and a bus during an important meeting while also trying to save money. These choices have one thing in common: a feeling of uncertainty (sometimes more intense than others), and this can become complicated by our own personalities, our life experiences, and the distractions surrounding us.
When we have to choose between the bus and the cab, we may have to factor in our anxiety levels, our priorities (like saving money), the weather, the risk of being late and other related factors, if we want to reach our office on time (the goal we want to achieve). Based on these factors alone, we might make different choices.
This is where Signal Detection Theory comes in - a theory that tried to understand soldiers' ability to differentiate between actual signals from background noise during the wake of World War II. Tanner and Swets in 1954 brought this theory into psychology research on decision-making in uncertain situations.
This theory talks about a person's ability to identify any SIGNAL (or some sort of stimulus like sound, image, or even a goal) in the presence of NOISE(this could be distraction, our personalities, or our life circumstances).
..This can lead to four possible outcomes...
HIT- When we are able to correctly detect a signal when it is present. For example, our ability to detect a friend calling us in a crowded street from far away, despite traffic and noise.
FALSE ALARM- When we think there is a signal when there is none. For example, we think someone has called our name, but it is a stranger shouting out a sound that sounds similar to our name.
MISS - This happens when we think there is no signal even though it is present. For example, we misjudged that no one called our name, and it was just someone from the crowd, but it indeed turned out to be our friend.
CORRECT REJECTION - This happens when we correctly choose that a signal wasn't present. For example, we correctly decipher that nobody called out our name in the crowded street.
It is quite apparent that we can realise whether our choice led to any of the above-mentioned outcomes only after we have already made the decision, but we are always aiming for either a hit or a correct rejection. This implies that we are taking a risk of either being happy with an outcome or disappointed about it (or similar binaries of emotion).
How do Understand our decision-making process better?
How well do we know ourselves?
Self-awareness can play a significant role in understanding how we make decisions. Some of us are more cautious than others- weighing our choices through a thorough list of pros and cons. This might mean that we are more inclined towards making a choice that we are certain about. So, if there are more distractions, we may not choose at all. Conversely, someone who takes risks may simply take opportunities as they come, becoming open to both a higher number of setbacks and successes.
How well do we know what we want?
Knowing what we want is essential in being able to sift through distractions. Yes, despite signal detection theory talking about decision making in uncertainties, we can have a basic checklist of expectations, and see if the current situation matches most of our expectations. For instance, if we want a well-paying job that is in our field of interest and we are offered a job, we may choose to first focus on the general expectations we have from a job (has good benefits, there are steady modes of transport, etc.) and then we check if where we are financially would allow us to leave an opportunity like this. This way, even if we are uncertain about whether a job offer is our dream job, (we are cautious about the setbacks we may face in the job), we can make a choice based on whether it matches some of our expectations.
What do we know about the risks of our decisions?
Some choices can be risky- the doctor who has to diagnose a tumor from an unclear X-ray could risk the wellbeing of their patient if misdiagnosed, or a person is weighing the option to postpone an important medical check-up because they don't want to dip into their savings before their next salary, or . Often, if the risks are too high, it is better to be cautious, but it is equally important to remind ourselves that some risks are in our minds (the risk of a stressful job is different from the risk of a misdiagnosis, and we have to approach them differently). A cautious person can ask themselves- Is my worry based on facts or my own fears?
What can we do to prepare for a worst-case scenario (not ruminate)?
There can be times, after we make a decision, when we realise it wasn't the right one. In cases like these, any form of support is beneficial to us. Finding ways to ask for second opinions before we make a choice - a cautious person who might overthink about their decision can ask someone for a second opinion. The weight of doing everything on our own can make some people not want to take important career risks or make choices that may seem drastic, but any support or guidance in these situations can help steer us in a direction that is closer to our well-being.
Most importantly, being open-minded, that despite being prepared, we can't guarantee that we will get the exact outcome we want:
But at the end of the day, we need to realise that there is always a possibility that the decision we make is not correct for us ( a MISS or a FALSE ALARM), and we have to make a choice despite these possibilities. Some degree of kindness and empathy for ourselves and others in this situation can make a world of difference. They say Hindsight is 20:20, and this holds true for critical life decisions that we make in the face of a lot of uncertainties. We also cannot control every variable before making a choice
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